Oracle Primavera Cloud Training Day 1

Risk Management - A Primer

A general overview of the Risk Management Process

A general review of the schedule is to be done. Are there any lags, floats, long tasks, open ended tasks, etc.? The quality of the schedule checked. The instructor shows a Schedule Check Report. After the quality of the schedule is improved, then the risk assessment is to be carried out.

Next step: Apply uncertainty. Duration uncertainty is assigned to activities with help of a primavera template.

A scoring is assigned to each risk. Then the top five high risk items are identified.

Then, a monte carlo simulation is done. Three-point analysis (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic)

Strategize and see what the options are. Example is given for a risk of a employee strike at a project. Example options to reduce the risk is given.

Recurring risk monitoring and reanalysis

Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis Module

Risk Register Example on Primavera

Risk Register Analysis Window

Risk Analysis Report (after the run of Monte Carlo Simulation)

Cost Impact of risks to activities

Hands-on Practice

Activity Uncertainty Simulation

For a simple schedule created for this exercise, the aim is to assess the variation of overall project duration and completion date (and cost if possible) with varying activity durations due to uncertainty.

Simple two-task schedule

Start with Actions and then "Apply Activity Uncertainty" at the Schedule > Activities window. The default uncertainty percentages are 90-100-110 although the defaults in the software are 90-100-130.

Then, go to Risk > Risk Analysis and just run the analysis (without any risks). This will run a Monte Carlo Simulation that simulates each individual activity duration varying between the thresholds defined above.

The simulation generates random durations for each activity in the project based on the uncertainty limits defined above. Then runs the schedule each time to calculate duration, finish date etc. The histogram below is generated based on 3000 iterations.